Record Discounts to Drive Increase in Online Holiday Spending

US e-commerce sales will grow this holiday season as retailers implement bigger discounts than ever and provide more flexible payment options, according to Adobe.

Sales are set to rise 4.8% year on year to $221.8 billion over the November-to-December period, the company predicted in its annual holiday shopping forecast last week. That gain is higher than the 3.5% year-on-year increase in 2022, when consumers spent $211.7 billion online amid economic uncertainty and rising inflation.

For the first time, mobile shopping is on track to overtake desktop, Adobe reported.

“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” said Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing at Adobe.

In particular, he added, the “buy now, pay later” model “has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place.”

Even with holiday purchasing continuing to start earlier, the usual major shopping days are set to return to prominence. While those days took a hit last year, retailers are giving them added appeal this season by offering steeper-than-usual discounts. Digital sales during Cyber Week, which comprises Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, will grow 5.4% year on year to $37.2 billion, Adobe projected — 17% of the entire holiday season’s spending.

The company anticipates that Cyber Monday will be the biggest shopping day of the season — and of the entire year — with sales up 6.1% to $12 billion. By comparison, Black Friday spending is set to climb 5.7% to $9.6 billion, and Thanksgiving sales to grow 5.5% to $5.6 billion.

Store owners will continue to offer deals as early as the second week of October, with discounts reaching record highs of up to 35% off listed prices, Adobe added. Toys and apparel will likely have the biggest discounts, followed by electronics.

Amazon is reprising its Prime Day shopping event — the latest edition of which took place this year in July — on October 10 to 11, and this will help drive the early discounting, Adobe believes. That sale is expected to bring in $8.1 billion, a 6.1% increase from last year.