US holiday spending is likely to exceed $1 trillion for the first time as retailers practice competitive pricing to meet consumer budgets, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Retail sales in November and December will rise 4.2% year on year to $1.01 trillion, the NRF predicted last week. That compares with an increase of 3.1% year on year in 2025 to $972 billion.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
The NRF anticipates that consumer demand will be so high that retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers. However, external factors could weigh on sales, the organization warned.
“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” said Mark Matthews, the NRF’s chief economist and executive director of research. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”
The NRF’s forecast aligns with others. Bain & Company predicted a 4.5% year-on-year rise to more than $1 trillion, while Mastercard expects 6% growth over 2025’s figure for the two months. According to Adobe Analytics, online sales alone will climb 7% year on year to $275.1 billion.
Image: A woman shopping for holiday gifts. (Shutterstock)
