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The top end of the watch industry continues to see outsized success. Timepieces with a retail price of over CHF 50,000 (about $64,000) now represent 37% of Swiss watch exports by value, despite accounting for only 1.4% of volume, according to the latest “Swiss Watcher” report from Morgan Stanley, which came out in February. The big names have gained further market share: Of the 450 or so Swiss watch brands, the top four – Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe and Omega – accounted for 55% of sales in 2025, up from 52% in 2024. Fifth and sixth on the list were Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille.
Globally the Swiss watch market contracted slightly last year for the second year in a row, with the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) reporting a 1.7% drop in exports by value. The wholesale market for Swiss watches worldwide stood at CHF 25.6 billion (about $38 billion). At the retail level, per the Morgan Stanley report, this amounted to a total value of CHF 49 billion (about $63 billion). Swiss-made watches represent approximately 96% of the global luxury watch market, which covers watches retailing for CHF 2,000 (about $2,500) or more.
The US has maintained its position as the biggest market for Swiss watches, accounting for 17% of total exports in 2025 despite the roller coaster ride that the administration’s tariffs have caused. President Donald Trump initially proposed a 31% import tariff on Swiss watches, then 10%, then 39%, before settling on 15%. “Although more manageable than 39%, this remains materially above the prior 2% to 2.5% level,” says the “Swiss Watcher” report.
This created a boom-and-bust cycle for Swiss exports to the US, which surged 149% in April as retailers stocked up before the tariff, then fell again in May by 25%, according to FH. After that came another surge of 45% in July in anticipation of the 39% tariff, which went into effect on August 7. The drop to a 15% tax came after a hail-Mary visit to the White House from Rolex CEO Jean-Frederic Dufour and Richemont chairman Johann Rupert in November.
Ups and downs
Did the tariffs spook consumers? Not at the high end, says Jonathan Zadok of watch retailer Zadok Jewelers in Houston, Texas. “Those things affect the middle end consumer more than the top end consumer. A guy that’s going to spend $3,500 on a watch may not spend $4,000 for that watch. That’s a big difference for him. But a guy that’s going to spend $50,000 for a watch is still going to spend $55,000.”
Given this ongoing premiumization in the watch market, the mid-luxury segment is taking a bit of a hit, according to the Morgan Stanley report, which estimates that of the top 50 brands, 10 saw their turnover decrease 15% or more last year.
Zadok, however, says the mid-luxury market, despite ups and downs, levels out over time. “I think there are strengths there. Brands that come off as cool and special do well. Tudor is doing well. Omega is doing very well. I’m very happy with the watches we’re seeing in the mid-range in general.”
Analyst Chris Hall of industry newsletter The Fourth Wheel says the solution for mid-range brands is to resist the temptation to raise prices in an effort to keep up. “The joke is that eventually the biggest Swiss watch brands will just make one watch and sell it for a billion dollars. Too many of these mid-market brands have collections that have barely changed in over a decade, despite raising prices. It could alienate their customers, who can see a price hike for what it is.”
Meeting in the middle
John Shmerler says the premiumization/polarization trend is real, but no cause for panic. “The largest brands continue to capture a greater share,” acknowledges the CEO of The 1916 Company, an amalgamation of secondhand-timepiece seller WatchBox and retailers Govberg, Radcliffe and Hyde Park Jewelers. “However, supply constraints at the very top leave a meaningful opportunity for other brands to grow. The mid-luxury space tends to reward brands that remain clear about their identity.”
The pre-owned sector is also benefiting from watchmakers’ move toward more expensive offerings, says Eugene Tutunikov, CEO of Atlanta-based secondhand-watch retailer SwissWatchExpo. “The consumer is feeling the impact of higher retail prices for new watches, and they’re looking to the pre-owned market to find some value.”
To illustrate the difference, SwissWatchExpo lists original retail prices next to the pre-owned prices on its site. For example, a Patek Philippe Ref. 5236P that sells for $156,039 at retail runs for $95,540 at SwissWatchExpo, and a gold Rolex Sky-Dweller that retails for $49,050 has a $38,990 price tag.
“Our sales increased 16% last year, and we crossed the $100 million mark for the first time,” reports Tutunikov. This year, he expects to hit $120 million.
The dominance of the top four brands is even more pronounced in the pre-owned market, he adds. “There have been years when Rolex alone was over 40% of our total sales.”
Keeping track
The secondary watch market is difficult to track because there are so many different venues, but estimates put it somewhere between $16 billion and $25 billion, depending on the source. While the primary retail market still dwarfs it with an estimated value of $60 billion to $90 billion, that could soon change.
“The pre-owned market is growing at 12% [annually], while the new market is growing between 3% and 4%,” says Tutunikov. “So the pre-owned market is growing three to four times faster than new. I’ve heard that by 2033, the pre-owned market will be bigger than the primary market.”
Another factor driving the secondary market is access to discontinued models. Rolex is reportedly discontinuing one of its most popular models, the GMT-Master II Ref. 126710BLRO, known as the “Pepsi” because of its red and blue bezel. “The speculation now is that Rolex might be rereleasing the Coke,” says Tutunikov, citing the nickname of the red and black GMT-Master II Ref. 16760, which the company discontinued in 2007. “We’ll see.”
Main image: The Audemars Piguet Neo Frame Jumping Hour Ref. 15245OR.OO.A206VE.01. (Audemars Piguet)
