US Consumer Spending Dips

RAPAPORT… US retail sales stalled between August
and September, indicating that consumer confidence may be waning in light of
the escalating trade war.



Total purchases for September —
excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants — dipped 0.1% compared to the
previous month, according to data the National Retail Federation (NRF)
published Wednesday. However, with the month also seeing 4.5% year-on-year growth,
the NRF noted that the trade situation might not be the only trigger for the
recent slowdown.



“The pullback in
September compared with August is possibly a reaction to increased fears over
US-China tensions,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “[But] while
uncertainty around trade policy and other issues has dampened consumer
sentiment recently, consumers still have a lot going for them, as evidenced by
longer-term trends and factors like the tight labor market.”



He added that
September was a “tricky month to measure” because of seasonal factors including
the end of summer and back-to-school spending. “This year’s early Labor Day may
have [also] moved up some spending into the last days of August,” he noted.


The NRF expects a surge in
imports at the US’s major retail container ports ahead of the next raft of
tariffs in December, it said in a separate report last week.


Its latest Global Port Tracker data
show that the ports covered by its analysis handled 2 million 20-foot
equivalent units (TEU) in August — up 0.2% versus July and
3.9% year on year.



But while the organization predicted accelerated
growth in November, it warned these figures would decline as the new China
trade tariffs took effect.



January 2020 is
forecast at 1.9 million TEU, noted the NRF, down 1.9% from January 2019.
February — traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New
Year factory shutdowns in Asia — is forecast at 1.6 million TEU, 1.8% lower
than the previous year.



Image: People on an escalator in a mall. (Shutterstock)