Strong Economy to Buoy US Retail in 2022: NRF

RAPAPORT… US retail sales will increase between 6% and 8% this year amid strong wage growth and declining unemployment, the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast.

The organization expects total sales of $4.86 trillion to $4.95 trillion for the year, while online purchases are predicted to reach between $1.17 trillion and $1.19 trillion — a jump of 11% to 13%, the NRF said Wednesday.

“NRF expects retail sales to increase in 2022, as consumers are ready to spend and have the resources to do so,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay. “We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion.”

In 2021, sales increased 14%, the highest growth rate in over 20 years. That surge was due to the reopening of the economy following a long Covid-19 lockdown, with consumers looking to spend stimulus checks, the NRF explained. This year’s forecast is well above the 10-year, pre-pandemic average rise of 3.7%.

However, a variety of factors could affect growth during the year, the NRF warned.

“Most households have never experienced anything like this level of inflation, and it is expected to remain elevated well into 2023,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “In addition to inflation, the forces impacting the economy include Covid-19, international tensions and policy variability.”

Image: A crowded mall. (Shutterstock)