Adobe Predicts Huge Jump in Online Holiday Sales

RAPAPORT… E-commerce spending in the US is set to “shatter” all previous records for the holidays, according to Adobe Analytics.

Sales will rise 33% year on year to $189 billion over the November-to-December period, Adobe predicted in its annual online holiday shopping predictions Wednesday. That figure could rise if the US government distributes another round of stimulus checks, and if the Covid-19 pandemic forces another shutdown of physical stores in large parts of the country. Those factors could add an additional $11 billion to online purchasing, resulting in a 47% year-on-year increase to more than $200 billion.

Instead of the usual Cyber Week, which accounts for digital sales between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, Adobe expects November and December to be Cyber Months this year, with the bulk of seasonal spending taking place online.

Some 33% of consumers will have their holiday shopping completed by Black Friday, as retailers start holiday sales much earlier due to concerns over shipping delays, product demand and the uncertain economic environment. In fact, consumers will spend $56 million online in the weeks leading up to the Thanksgiving weekend, 37% more than during the same period a year ago, Adobe forecast. E-commerce sales between November 1 and November 21 will surpass $2 billion per day. This will increase to a daily $3 billion between November 22 and December 3.

Small retailers will see a larger boost to online revenue during the holiday shopping season than larger retailers, up 107% from last year, as consumers look to support local businesses. Revenue for larger retailers will increase 84%.

Adobe measures data from over one trillion visits to 80 of the top 100 online US retailers.

Image: A woman shopping online. (Shutterstock)