US Imports Forecast to Hit Record High Ahead of Possible August Tariffs

US imports are likely to reach a new record, as retailers prepare inventory in anticipation of tariff increases in August, according to Global Port Tracker (GPT).

The temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, which took effect in February, is due to expire on July 24, the National Retail Federation (NRF), which issued the report together with Hackett Associates, said Wednesday. However, the Trump administration is expected to impose a new round of tariffs related to forced labor as early as August.  

“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. “Retailers have been working to get products into the US and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher. Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits.”

Imports at the US’s major retail ports covered by the GPT are forecast to reach a record 2.47 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, which will be a 3.3% rise compared to the same period last year. The previous monthly record, in May 2022, as the economy bounced back from the Covid–19 pandemic, was 2.4 million TEU.

May, the latest month with final figures available, was up 15% compared to the equivalent month in 2025, which saw low numbers amid the “Liberation Day” tariffs President Donald Trump announced in April that year. The ports have not yet reported June’s final numbers, however, GPT estimated the month at 2.33 million TEU, a 19% jump.

That would bring imports to 12.77 million TEU for the first half of 2026, a 2% increase from the same period in 2025.

Image: Shipping containers at the port. (Shutterstock)