US Holiday Spending to Reach Near Record

US consumer spending this holiday season is likely to come close to last year’s record, dropping $12 per person to average $890, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast.

Of the total expenditure, $628 is expected to go toward gifts for family members and friends. That figure is down from $641 from last year, the NRF reported last week in a survey it carried out with Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” said NRF vice president Katherine Cullen. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the holiday special.”

Shoppers will spend the remaining $263 on seasonal items such as decorations, food and candy, and greeting cards, the poll found. Approximately 91% of adults said they would celebrate Christmas, Hanukkah or the African American holiday of Kwanzaa this year, consistent with 2024 numbers.

About 42% of the respondents intended to start buying gifts before November. The main reasons people gave for shopping early were to manage their budget over time, reduce last-minute stress, avoid crowds, and take advantage of promotions. Nevertheless, 60% of respondents said they expected to finish their purchasing in December.

Tariffs continued to be a major concern for consumers, with 85% anticipating them to cause price increases. Almost 63% hoped to do the bulk of their holiday shopping during Thanksgiving weekend, an increase from 59% last year.

“Despite consumers’ economic concerns, the winter holidays remain an important occasion to celebrate with loved ones,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper. “This is particularly true for those families with children, who are expected to increase their gift budgets by more than $30 on average.”

Online shopping remains the leading holiday shopping method, with 55% of consumers planning e-commerce buys. This is followed by grocery stores, department stores, and discount locations.

Gift cards were the most desired item for 50% of respondents, followed by clothing and accessories, including jewelry, at 46%. Another 27% hoped to receive books and other media, while 23% wanted personal care or beauty products and 22% wished for electronics.

Image: A person giving a holiday gift. (Shutterstock)