RAPAPORT… Summer is heating up, and retailers are keeping a sharp eye on sales and inventory to see what they’ll need for the all-important Christmas shopping season. Some went to the Las Vegas shows in early June to seek out new vendors and reconnect with long-time colleagues. Others decided to stay away, focusing instead on selling existing inventory and planning to fill inventory holes as they appear in the months leading up to the holiday. Regardless of strategy, all retailers are increasingly optimistic about the Christmas season this year and, assuming they can discover ways to combat online competition, most expect 2011 to end on a high note.
Shows and No-Shows
For most store owners, the annual pilgrimage to the desert is a must. “I attended Couture, Luxury and JCK,” said Tonia Leitzel Ulsh, chief operating officer (COO) of Mountz Jewelers, with three stores in Pennsylvania. “If you are in this business, these shows are critical to know what is happening in the industry. New introductions are there, trends can be seen and ideas swarm with the attendees.”
Keith Hurdle, owner of Hurdle’s Jewelry in Boulder, Colorado, agreed. “I go every year, and I have since the show started,” he said. “It’s convenient for me, and I can start concentrating on my holiday purchasing, and we expose ourselves to new designs.”
For Debbie Berkowitz, co-owner of Glitters Fine Jewelry in Leawood, Kansas, the Vegas shows are also convenient, partly because of the timing. “JCK happens at a good time of year, because I’m ready to start buying for Christmas,” she said. “I’ve only done 20 percent of my Christmas buying, but going to the shows helps give me a direction in terms of advertising and everything. And it’s the biggest show. I don’t have to go all over the world. The world comes to me.”
Some store owners chose not to go to the shows, but sent others in their place. Such was the case with Mike Butterfield, co-owner of Butterfield Jewelers in Albuquerque, New Mexico. “I didn’t go to Las Vegas this year, but two of my people did,” he said. “We try to go every year, but as of late, we haven’t gone every year. This year, we went to make some purchases that we’d put off because of the recession, and also to get some new vendors into the store.”
Of course, some store owners just don’t feel the need to go to the Vegas shows at all. This year, Christopher Eles, co-owner of Crown Fine Jewelry in Scottsdale, Arizona, skipped them. “This was the first year I didn’t go,” he said. “I didn’t need anything there. Our business now is probably half silver jewelry. I never sold a single piece of silver before the recession, and now it’s about half my business.”
Holiday Planning
Although many attended the shows to do some early Christmas window-shopping, most of the small retailers are still waiting until fall to buy heavily for holiday. Eles said he waits until October to buy his seasonal products, and Butterfield is also waiting for autumn. Still others, however, are already finished stocking their core inventory for December. Said Hurdle, “Within reason, we’re technically done buying for holiday. Then, as those things get sold, we’ll replenish.”
Ulsh also is finished with her holiday purchases, and said she’ll be “watching basics and core to make sure we have what we need, and I will be thinking about Valentine’s Day very soon.”
The mood seemed positive, too, when retailers discussed their predictions for what this holiday shopping season might hold. Although it’s months away, forward-thinking store owners are optimistic that the worst of the recession has passed. “Based on what I’m seeing, we will be up come Christmas,” said Berkowitz. “You know that can change in a heartbeat, and I’m not feeling like we’re all back to normal and everything is going to be great. But we have seen a definite increase in consumer spending in our area.”
Eles agreed. “I think it’s still going to be good in December,” he said. “We did quite well over Christmas in 2010, and this Christmas is going to be a little better than that.”
Hopeful Outlook
Hurdle echoed the thoughts of many retailers when he said he’d just like to see things stay even. “We’ve done a very good May, and June was just rocking,” he said. “I think this Christmas will be fine. We know the economy is shaky, but if things stay status quo, we’re good.”
For Butterfield, who expects small improvements over 2010, the coming season should continue the trend of upward economic movement. “We’re cautiously optimistic,” he said. “We almost hit our forecasts last year, and I’m a bit more modest this year. I’m expecting a 5 percent increase. It’s not going to be a whiz-bang holiday, but we’ll see a moderate improvement, unless something really strange happens. Americans get tired of bad news and want to have a bit of fun.”
The Marketplace
- Round cuts are outselling every other cut right now.
- 1-carat stones are top sellers.
- True SI1s is the most popular clarity.
- G-H is the best-selling color range.
- 14-karat white gold is the most popular setting choice, but some of that has to do with what the popular designers are offering right now.
- The average price for an engagement ring, including stone and setting, is $6,125.
