Rapaport Intelligence Report: Diamond Market Split on the Strip

The JCK Las Vegas show, which ran from May 29 to June 1, reflected a situation in the US market that is gradually solidifying. Diamonds under 2 carats are increasingly losing out to lab-grown, leaving larger stones as the natural sector’s mainstay.

This trend was already visible at the 2025 fair and had intensified by this year’s event. While a few exhibitors reported independent jewelers returning to natural in the 1- to 1.99-carat range, most arrived at the show knowing that 2-carat-plus was going to be the core product, and they were proven right. Many came with highly focused inventories in anticipation of this – especially the overseas vendors that had tariff considerations.

Sometimes trade fairs simply capture the state of the market at a given time. The 2024 JCK fair, for example, occurred during a period of recovery for SI-clarity diamonds, and this trend was visible on that year’s show floor.

The current state of the market, however, appears more permanent as the diamond market bifurcates.

As we explain in this edition of the Rapaport Intelligence Report, US consumers who would previously have bought smaller diamonds, especially for engagement rings, are opting for synthetics due to cost. Lab-grown has also normalized large center stones, impacting natural demand, while price drops in the mined product have made larger stones a more affordable choice. In addition, sharp declines in diamond sales in China – historically a market for small, high-quality stones – have enhanced the importance of the US, where size is a bigger factor.

This report presents the situation in the diamond industry and illustrates it with exclusive data from Rapaport Trade (formerly RapNet) showing pricing and inventory movement. It also tackles a contradiction in the current market: Prices of some diamonds under 1 carat, especially in higher colors and clarities, are recovering, just at a time when actual sales are showing the reverse.

The Las Vegas show, as well as concurrent fairs taking place in the Nevada city, reflected more than just an emphasis on size. Riches were also in the niches: Exhibitors came looking for long fancy shapes, antique cuts, low-color diamonds, and unique jewelry designs.

The takeaway is that selling “bread-and-butter” goods is no longer enough.

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Assessing a Divided Diamond Market

The K-shaped recovery was the talk of the JCK Las Vegas show in late May and early June. This refers to the structure of consumer demand and the diamond market. The wealthier are spending, the poorer less. Large diamonds are selling well, smalls less so.