Holiday-Weekend Shopper Count Crushes Forecast

A total of 202.9 million consumers shopped during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend — 16 million more than the National Retail Federation (NRF) had predicted.

The figure is also the highest number in the survey’s history, up from 197 million shoppers last year and surpassing the previous record of 200.4 million in 2023, the NRF said Tuesday. The organization had originally anticipated 186.9 million.

The number of consumers who made purchases in stores between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday rose 3% year on year to 129.5 million, while those who shopped wholly online grew 9% to 134.9 million, according to a survey the NRF conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“Thanksgiving weekend is an important time for families and friends to come together, and holiday shopping plays a key role in that shared experience,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay. “This year’s record turnout reflects a highly engaged consumer who is focused on value, responds to compelling promotions, and seizes upon the opportunity to make the winter holidays special and meaningful.”

Black Friday prevailed as the most popular day for both in-store and online shopping, the survey found, with 80.3 million buyers at brick-and-mortar locations, and 85.7 million online. Some 62.7 million consumers did their shopping in physical stores on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, up from last year’s 61.1 million. The following Sunday drew a record 32.6 million, a 27% increase over 2024. Cyber Monday remained the second-most popular day for online shopping, attracting 75.9 million consumers versus 64.4 million a year ago.

Overall, the 96% of consumers who bought holiday-related items spent an average of $338 on them over the five-day period — $22 more than last year, and the second-highest figure to date.

Online and department stores were the most common shopping destinations after supermarkets, according to the survey. The top gifting category, which over half of respondents picked, was clothing and accessories, including jewelry. Some 32% bought toys, while 28% opted for books and media, and 26% chose gift cards.

Sales for the full November-to-December holiday period are set to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% year on year and surpass $1 trillion for the first time, the NRF forecast.

Image: A crowded Texas mall during Thanksgiving weekend 2019. (Shutterstock)