US Holiday Sales to Grow, but Jewelry Might Not

US holiday retail sales will rise during the traditional two-month holiday period, but consumers may opt for fixed-budget goods such as gift cards in the wake of higher tariffs on other items, according to Mastercard.

Revenue will increase 3.6% year on year from November 1 to December 24, data the Mastercard Economic Institute released last week showed. Online shopping is likely to be strong, set to grow 7.9% year on year, while in-store purchases will be up 2.3%. That compares to an overall increase of 4.1% during the same period a year ago.

Consumers will probably base their purchasing decisions on a few factors, including the health of the job market and tariff-related price increases. Three different responses are possible: Consumers could purchase higher-taxed items regardless, they could substitute cheaper goods, or they could lay out more on services or other goods less affected by tariffs, Mastercard explained. The higher duties could also see consumers more readily buying gift cards, rather than goods, which could help them mitigate rising prices and allow them a fixed-budget purchase.

“Tariffs are a key uncertainty for 2025,” Mastercard stated. “Popular holiday items — including clothing and shoes, sporting goods, toys, jewelry, beauty products and Christmas ornaments and trees — are already facing higher tariff rates compared to 2024.”

In June 2024, the tariff rate on jewelry was 4.7%, Mastercard said. However, in June 2025, it rose to 14.7%. Lower inflation on the category, at minus 0.2% versus 0.4% in 2024, partly offset the higher levies. Another factor that could make a difference is the timing of the holiday. This year, Thanksgiving will take place on November 27, the second-latest possible date, shortening the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, which could boost online sales at the beginning of December, Mastercard added.

Image: Holiday shoppers. (Shutterstock)