rapaport

Market Comment

January 16, 2025

News: Signet share price plummeted 22% on Jan. 14 after holiday same-store sales -2% YOY, with weak fashion sales and shift to lower price points. Share price declined 43% over past 3 months. Independents had better season than large chains. Drop in consumer prices for synthetics incentivizing retailers to sell natural. Richemont fiscal 3Q sales at jewelry maisons +14% YOY to $4.6B. Rupee depreciation (-3% since Oct. 1 to INR 86.6/$1) may reduce Indian demand. Industry cautious about taking on inventory. Alrosa reduces prices by about 8% at Jan. sale. Low sales expected at next week’s De Beers sight. India 2024 net polished exports -20% to $7.8B, net rough imports -16% to $11.3B.

Fancies: Fancy-shape prices stable. Prices firm for 3 ct. and larger, as nice items are hard to find. Good US demand and price increases for elongated Ovals in D-I, VS-SI categories with good shape and quality. Ovals 5% to 10% more expensive than Pears in US market. Elongated Emeralds, Radiants and Pears in demand, with stable prices. 2.50 to 2.99 ct. trading at significant premiums in those shapes. Supply shortages supporting prices for Marquises. Square Cushions slow. Very well-cut fancy shapes difficult to find and commanding premiums. Off-make, poorly cut fancies illiquid.

United States: 

Mixed reports at start of year. Season was decent for independent jewelers but tougher for large chains. Lots of promotional price pressure. Signet holiday sales impacted market sentiment. Wholesalers cautious, as retailers and dealers are not expecting to restock. Battle against inflation not over: Consumer Price Index up 2.9% at annual rate in December.

Belgium: 

Sentiment low. Little demand from retailers. Hard to make a profit. Rough market quiet ahead of De Beers January sight

Israel: 

Market slow amid weak overseas orders. Polished exports fell 36% to $1.87 billion in 2024, with rough imports down 13% at $798.8 million.

India: 

Trading sluggish amid ongoing slump in Chinese demand and mixed US orders. Domestic jewelry market supporting sector. Dealers reluctant to invest in inventory. Production remains at low levels. Manufacturers watching for De Beers’ price decisions at next week’s sight. Synthetics prices falling.

Hong Kong: 

Muted expectations for Chinese New Year (January 29). Orders from jewelry manufacturers slowing as they prepare for one-month vacation. Market focusing on lower-budget items such as colored gemstones. Sentiment weak. Sales and supply both low.